Will Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 93¢ · $199 held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$198.76
-$3.8
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
26 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 90¢ | $134.72 | $139.96 | +$5.24 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $53.41 | $43.39 | -$10.01 | 53% 2250-1980 (4230) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $7.53 | $8.05 | +$0.52 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $6.76 | $7.21 | +$0.45 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$134.72
Value
$139.96
PnL
+$5.24
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
Invested
$53.41
Value
$43.39
PnL
-$10.01
Record
53%
2250-1980 (4230)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$7.53
Value
$8.05
PnL
+$0.52
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$6.76
Value
$7.21
PnL
+$0.45
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.