Consensus PnL -$108K · win rate 54% (2108–1769, n=3877) · was PM monthly #813 · holds 40 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-108.4K
Record
2108W / 1769L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 3877 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1485
Source
PM monthly #813
Trades
420
Markets
4,400
Volume
$3.4M
Top consensus positions
40 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 40 on the consensus side (70%)- Raptors vs. LakersLakers $8.1K · now 57¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (60% of 18)
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-11-01?No $4.0K · now 36¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $1.9K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $1.2K · now 57¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes $1.0K · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (50% of 12)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $831 · now 91¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (45% of 11)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?No $703 · now 88¢ · in at 88¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-01?Yes $607 · now 99¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
Specialties
1,387 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 66¢- Soccer
+29 pts
side won 95% of 1310 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +20%
- NFL
+36 pts
side won 97% of 38 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +27%
- NBA
+28 pts
side won 94% of 32 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +12%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 61% of 100)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 92% of 218)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 97% of 375)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 694)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.