Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 38¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$0.64

Smart Money Entry

38.9¢ → 37.5¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$769.97

Total Shares1,962

Combined PnL+$9.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$426.28

Total Shares427

Combined PnL-$8.63

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PaddyAlphaCTR	Noavg 38.5¢	$1.0K	$758.19	+$16.13	59% 986-684 (1670)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 58.2¢	$441.5	$414.13	-$17.78	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
jesterthegoose<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3	$12.15	+$9.15	81% 648-148 (796)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$18.63	$11.78	-$6.85	36% 2086-3721 (5807)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Invested

$1,016.81

Value

$758.19

PnL

+$16.13

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$441.5

Value

$414.13

PnL

-$17.78

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

jesterthegoose<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$12.15

PnL

+$9.15

Record

81%

648-148 (796)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Invested

$18.63

Value

$11.78

PnL

-$6.85

Record

36%

2086-3721 (5807)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.5%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$153.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

253.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.