Consensus PnL $21K · win rate 68% (540–258, n=798) · hand-picked wallet · holds 117 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.2K
Record
540W / 258L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 798 settled
Batting Avg
78.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#815
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
204,652
Markets
1,938
Volume
$7.4M
Top consensus positions
117 in listed consensus markets · 70 of 117 on the consensus side (60%)- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.4K · now 42¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (50% of 46)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $1.5K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $1.5K · now 87¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (27% of 22)
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?No $1.5K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $1.5K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Yes $1.3K · now 74¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No $1.1K · now 92¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes $1.1K · now 9¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
929 settled consensus markets · held side won 82% at an average entry of 78¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 77% of 262 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +1%
- Entertainment
+26 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +2%
- Finance
+11 pts
side won 87% of 23 · avg entry 76¢
ROI 0%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 10% of 146)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 67% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 79% of 52)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 97% of 704)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.