Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.6K
$133.72
81.1¢ → 83.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 79¢ | $786.83 | $859.73 | +$91.77 | 53% 7533-6661 (14194) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 85.8¢ | $296.91 | $309.64 | +$12.73 | 59% 990-695 (1685) |
 allenzzz | Noavg 83¢ | $210.17 | $225.37 | +$15.19 | 78% 125-36 (161) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $141.8 | $155.82 | +$14.02 | 73% 2958-1072 (4030) |
Invested
$786.83
Value
$859.73
PnL
+$91.77
Record
53%
7533-6661 (14194)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$296.91
Value
$309.64
PnL
+$12.73
Record
59%
990-695 (1685)
allenzzzInvested
$210.17
Value
$225.37
PnL
+$15.19
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
Tenebrus7Invested
$141.8
Value
$155.82
PnL
+$14.02
Record
73%
2958-1072 (4030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.