Consensus PnL $64K · win rate 77% (122–36, n=158) · was PM monthly #990 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$64.1K
Record
122W / 36L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 158 settled
Batting Avg
40.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#525
Source
PM monthly #990
Trades
490
Markets
224
Volume
$4.3M
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 21 on the consensus side (100%)- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $186K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?No $104K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $87K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
- Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?No $42K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?No $35K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (78% of 24)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $19K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No $6.2K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $4.2K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (74% of 35)
Specialties
179 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 82¢- Economy
+3 pts
side won 96% of 23 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +5%
- Tech
+5 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 85% of 47 at an average 87¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 0% of 16)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 33% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 40% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 82%(won 97% of 147)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.