Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 November 9-15?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 79¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$5.1K
$16.86
85.8¢ → 78.5¢
-9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | -$223.81 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
GE getbipped | Noavg 79¢ | $611.16 | $661.03 | +$49.86 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $442.57 | $612.72 | +$170.15 | — 2-1 (3) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $29.83 | $41.8 | +$20.32 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $3.44 | $3.78 | +$0.34 | 39% 29-45 (74) |
Invested
$4,040.41
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$223.81
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$611.16
Value
$661.03
PnL
+$49.86
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$442.57
Value
$612.72
PnL
+$170.15
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$29.83
Value
$41.8
PnL
+$20.32
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.34
Record
39%
29-45 (74)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.