Consensus PnL $2.3M · win rate 44% (253–322, n=575) · PM monthly #61 · holds 74 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.3M
Record
253W / 322L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 575 settled
Batting Avg
40.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2235
Source
PM monthly #61
Record (90 d)
173/473 · 37%
Trades
2,182
Markets
1,230
Volume
$24.9M
Top consensus positions
74 in listed consensus markets · 53 of 74 on the consensus side (72%)- Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?No $90K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (91% of 11)
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No $55K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (78% of 23)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $48K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (85% of 34)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $40K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in November?Yes $34K · now 95¢with the consensus (67% of 10)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $32K · now 42¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $30K · now 92¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?No $29K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (81% of 16)
Specialties
668 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 46¢- Crypto
+2 pts
side won 49% of 668 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 53%(won 6% of 355)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 60% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 95% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 100% of 271)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.