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25
Consensus PnL $236K · win rate 57% (66–50, n=116) · PM monthly #46 · holds 24 consensus positions
0x252d7bae...c0d3c456Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$236.4K
Record
66W / 50L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 116 settled
Batting Avg
27.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1353
Source
PM monthly #46
Trades
592
Markets
444
Volume
$7.6M
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 24 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?No $29K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $27K · now 45¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?No $21K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?No $18K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1?No $17K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?No $9.7K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 October 26-November 1?No $8.4K · now 99¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?No $8.2K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
Specialties
148 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 76¢- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 88% of 147 · avg entry 76¢
ROI −5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 20% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 75% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 100% of 13)
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 100% of 111)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.