Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$7.9K
-$64.73
53.5¢ → 53¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
748h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
17 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $5.4K | $5.5K | +$53.27 | 66% 910-479 (1389) |
 extractive-manateeCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $9.25 | $1.0K | -$53.32 | 33% 537-1070 (1607) |
KE kegli | Yesavg 60¢ | $180 | $802.5 | -$55 | 47% 47-53 (100) |
 probability | Yesavg 54.8¢ | $300.91 | $293.97 | -$9.68 | 41% 1401-2011 (3412) |
 thefakenick | Yesavg 53¢ | $265 | $265 | +$0 | 56% 834-655 (1489) |
Invested
$5,401.09
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$53.27
Record
66%
910-479 (1389)
extractive-manateeCTRInvested
$9.25
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$53.32
Record
33%
537-1070 (1607)
Invested
$180
Value
$802.5
PnL
-$55
Record
47%
47-53 (100)
probabilityInvested
$300.91
Value
$293.97
PnL
-$9.68
Record
41%
1401-2011 (3412)
thefakenickInvested
$265
Value
$265
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
834-655 (1489)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.