Consensus PnL $16K · win rate 56% (58–45, n=103) · was PM monthly #984 · holds 33 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$15.6K
Record
58W / 45L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 103 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1467
Source
PM monthly #984
Record (90 d)
9/40 · 23%
Trades
148
Markets
153
Volume
$509.1K
Top consensus positions
33 in listed consensus markets · 26 of 33 on the consensus side (79%)- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $2.8K · now 70¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
- Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $1.6K · now 18¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $810 · now 14¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No $808 · now 75¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Yes $803 · now 54¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $650 · now 7¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $560 · now 14¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $538 · now 13¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (96% of 29)
Specialties
70 settled consensus markets · held side won 34% at an average entry of 32¢- Soccer
+10 pts
side won 38% of 21 · avg entry 28¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 14% of 22 at an average 18¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 7% of 41)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 40% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 56% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 93% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.