Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Japan win Group F at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 28¢ · $9K held · ends Feb 6, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$9.0K
$2.7K
74.4¢ → 27.5¢
-63% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JabJabichCTR | Noavg 73.3¢ | $4.0K | $5.2K | +$1.2K | 60% 188-124 (312) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR | Noavg 85.1¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$314.5 | 74% 111-38 (149) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $13.2 | $826.5 | +$820.01 | 17% 4487-21970 (26457) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Noavg 25.5¢ | $135.52 | $146.36 | +$377.68 | 49% 1882-1986 (3868) |
Invested
$3,994.58
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
60%
188-124 (312)
Invested
$2,551.99
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$314.5
Record
74%
111-38 (149)
2B9SInvested
$13.2
Value
$826.5
PnL
+$820.01
Record
17%
4487-21970 (26457)
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$135.52
Value
$146.36
PnL
+$377.68
Record
49%
1882-1986 (3868)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.