Consensus PnL $90K · win rate 40% (1048–1550, n=2598) · PM monthly #289 · holds 77 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$90.5K
Record
1048W / 1550L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 2598 settled
Batting Avg
63.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2095
Source
PM monthly #289 + pinned
Trades
82,904
Markets
4,742
Volume
$16.2M
Top consensus positions
77 in listed consensus markets · 59 of 77 on the consensus side (77%)- Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?No $7.8K · now 96¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes $4.9K · now 76¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?No $4.1K · now 89¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (50% of 9)
- AI bubble burst in 2026?No $3.8K · now 90¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No $2.9K · now 69¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2027?No $2.8K · now 77¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No $2.3K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $1.9K · now 66¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
Specialties
3,269 settled consensus markets · held side won 42% at an average entry of 41¢- Entertainment
+3 pts
side won 46% of 556 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +4%
- Mentions
+3 pts
side won 67% of 218 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +2%
- Tech
+2 pts
side won 37% of 202 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 54% of 261 at an average 55¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 56%(won 7% of 1836)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 45% of 120)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 63% of 126)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 95% of 1187)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.