Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 60¢ · $4K held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$4.0K
-$696.8
57.5¢ → 59.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G.Hchen | Noavg 57.6¢ | $4.6K | $3.9K | -$687.7 | 57% 394-302 (696) |
GE gesst<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $55 | $59.5 | -$6 | 52% 197-185 (382) |
 Fuentes31<$100 | Noavg 55.7¢ | $33.46 | $35.76 | -$3.1 | 53% 686-608 (1294) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.