Consensus PnL $43K · win rate 58% (230–167, n=397) · PM monthly #254 · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$43.2K
Record
230W / 167L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 397 settled
Batting Avg
74.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1325
Source
PM monthly #254
Record (90 d)
61/111 · 55%
Trades
642
Markets
504
Volume
$735.9K
Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 28 on the consensus side (82%)- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes $676 · now 13¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?Yes $510 · now 24¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?No $184 · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Yes $182 · now 38¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $173 · now 48¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $173 · now 87¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (72% of 29)
- Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?No $156 · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $107 · now 72¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
340 settled consensus markets · held side won 42% at an average entry of 42¢- Politics
+6 pts
side won 45% of 31 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +2%
- Finance
+3 pts
side won 28% of 25 · avg entry 25¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 21% of 48 at an average 30¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 52%(won 7% of 176)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 37% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 64% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 95% of 112)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.