Consensus PnL $72K · win rate 68% (354–163, n=517) · PM monthly #618 · holds 53 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$71.6K
Record
354W / 163L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 517 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#551
Source
PM monthly #618
Record (90 d)
134/224 · 60%
Trades
168
Markets
652
Volume
$309.0K
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Top consensus positions
53 in listed consensus markets · 35 of 53 on the consensus side (66%)- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $7.0K · now 100¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (67% of 88)
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?No $4.8K · now 50¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $3.5K · now 100¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Yes $1.7K · now 99¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (61% of 33)
- Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?No $1.3K · now 99¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $805 · now 12¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $740 · now 19¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (91% of 23)
- Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?No $621 · now 91¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
499 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 56¢- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 83% of 133 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +18%
- MMA
+27 pts
side won 90% of 29 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +16%
- Elections
+7 pts
side won 62% of 255 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +11%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 20% of 10 at an average 47¢ entry (−27 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 26% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 59% of 117)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 79% of 171)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 86% of 145)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.