Consensus PnL $35K · win rate 54% (506–425, n=931) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$34.7K
Record
506W / 425L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 931 settled
Batting Avg
50.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1502
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
13,246
Markets
1,284
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $21K · now 12¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (84% of 19)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $4.4K · now 44¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $300 · now 57¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $164 · now 1¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
Specialties
1,040 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 51¢- Soccer
+14 pts
side won 63% of 462 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +8%
- Elections
+10 pts
side won 44% of 82 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 58% of 108 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 53% of 36 at an average 56¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 18% of 289)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 57% of 173)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 73% of 259)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 88% of 319)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.