Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$2.3K
-$201.64
76.6¢ → 76.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
2169h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 80.4¢ | $933.87 | $889.01 | -$44.97 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 72.3¢ | $711.66 | $770.08 | +$58.43 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $533.1 | $444.76 | -$88.34 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
LI linethCTR | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $152 | $99.63 | -$50.21 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $159.95 | $83.4 | -$76.54 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$933.87
Value
$889.01
PnL
-$44.97
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
StarMasterInvested
$711.66
Value
$770.08
PnL
+$58.43
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Invested
$533.1
Value
$444.76
PnL
-$88.34
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$152
Value
$99.63
PnL
-$50.21
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$159.95
Value
$83.4
PnL
-$76.54
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.