Consensus PnL $110K · win rate 52% (1046–977, n=2023) · hand-picked wallet · holds 101 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$109.7K
Record
1046W / 977L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 2023 settled
Batting Avg
52.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1614
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
52,541
Markets
3,839
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
101 in listed consensus markets · 75 of 101 on the consensus side (74%)- Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $35K · now 1¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $6.3K · now 84¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $4.8K · now 95¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.6K · now 71¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $3.3K · now 94¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No $3.2K · now 63¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes $2.9K · now 53¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (54% of 28)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.2K · now 73¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (75% of 80)
Specialties
2,562 settled consensus markets · held side won 49% at an average entry of 48¢- Politics
+6 pts
side won 53% of 190 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +3%
- Culture
+19 pts
side won 67% of 21 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +11%
- Finance
+7 pts
side won 57% of 121 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 45% of 240 at an average 47¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 11% of 718)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 41% of 493)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 61% of 803)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 89% of 548)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.