Consensus PnL $91K · win rate 49% (218–223, n=441) · PM monthly #989 · holds 31 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$91.4K
Record
218W / 223L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 441 settled
Batting Avg
52.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1843
Source
PM monthly #989
Trades
1,367
Markets
710
Volume
$706.5K
Top consensus positions
31 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 31 on the consensus side (61%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $18K · now 89¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?No $1.3K · now 85¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?Yes $737 · now 99¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg?No $618 · now 93¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?Yes $479 · now 83¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $398 · now 31¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes $305 · now 14¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?Yes $260 · now 44¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
Specialties
428 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 46¢- Elections
+21 pts
side won 69% of 100 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +6%
- Entertainment
+26 pts
side won 82% of 33 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +17%
- Economy
+19 pts
side won 50% of 54 · avg entry 31¢
ROI +17%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 45% of 20 at an average 45¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 28% of 176)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 72% of 58)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 84% of 67)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 94% of 127)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.