Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 55¢ · $10K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$9.5K
$859.41
47.1¢ → 55.5¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 iutwpfal | Noavg 49.5¢ | $1.1K | $6.3K | +$1.8K | 57% 412-313 (725) |
 BigMackyGCTR | Yesavg 63.9¢ | $3.7K | $2.4K | $-1.3K | 20% 108-423 (531) |
TR troim | Noavg 22.7¢ | $260.5 | $638.25 | +$377.75 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 57.9¢ | $188.69 | $144.97 | -$40.46 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.