Consensus PnL $89K · win rate 35% (290–531, n=821) · PM monthly #895 · holds 73 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$88.9K
Record
290W / 531L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 821 settled
Batting Avg
73.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2150
Source
PM monthly #895 + pinned
Trades
30,707
Markets
1,217
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
73 in listed consensus markets · 35 of 73 on the consensus side (48%)- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $6.3K · now 36¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (71% of 39)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $5.6K · now 70¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (76% of 95)
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?No $5.1K · now 46¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No $4.4K · now 32¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $4.2K · now 54¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (76% of 21)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $3.8K · now 66¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 75¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (56% of 39)
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No $3.1K · now 28¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
Specialties
571 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 41¢- Tech
+31 pts
side won 70% of 63 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +18%
- Entertainment
+33 pts
side won 83% of 40 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +31%
- Geopolitics
+23 pts
side won 66% of 205 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 33% of 234)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 77% of 97)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 90% of 135)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 96% of 105)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.