Consensus PnL $98K · win rate 61% (300–192, n=492) · was PM monthly #986 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$97.9K
Record
300W / 192L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 492 settled
Batting Avg
63.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1122
Source
PM monthly #986
Trades
2,208
Markets
923
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 11 on the consensus side (82%)- Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?No $6.6K · now 56¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No $5.8K · now 47¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?No $3.0K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?No $634 · now 86¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No $441 · now 83¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?No $284 · now 87¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?No $97 · now 16¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?No $85 · now 85¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
496 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 51¢- Soccer
+19 pts
side won 77% of 22 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 61% of 130 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +5%
- Entertainment
+25 pts
side won 75% of 12 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +25%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 76% of 17 at an average 77¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 42%(won 7% of 206)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 52% of 33)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 79% of 29)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 97% of 228)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.