Consensus PnL $43K · win rate 31% (127–281, n=408) · PM monthly #542 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$42.5K
Record
127W / 281L
Win Rate
31.0%
of 408 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2199
Source
PM monthly #542
Trades
278
Markets
500
Volume
$663.8K
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 36 on the consensus side (53%)- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $12K · now 54¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (76% of 21)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes $7.0K · now 65¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes $6.6K · now 56¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (40% of 12)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes $5.6K · now 69¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (56% of 17)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Yes $5.4K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Yes $5.1K · now 42¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (40% of 15)
- Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?Yes $4.7K · now 66¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Yes $4.4K · now 40¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
158 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 39¢- Mentions
+36 pts
side won 71% of 87 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +21%
- Geopolitics
+39 pts
side won 87% of 38 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +30%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 51% of 57)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 90% of 42)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 90% of 42)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 100% of 17)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.