Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 27¢ · $515 held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$514.88
$105.44
27.2¢ → 26.9¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $311.94 | $263.64 | -$47.81 | 56% 973-769 (1742) |
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $29.54 | $156.57 | +$127.03 | 56% 836-644 (1480) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | $64.63 | $68.54 | +$3.91 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
 mombilCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $3.87 | $26.13 | +$22.31 | 55% 1191-966 (2157) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.