Consensus PnL $211K · win rate 52% (289–269, n=558) · PM monthly #36 · holds 81 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$210.5K
Record
289W / 269L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 558 settled
Batting Avg
70.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1629
Source
PM monthly #36 + pinned
Trades
53,461
Markets
1,740
Volume
$5.0M
Top consensus positions
81 in listed consensus markets · 49 of 81 on the consensus side (60%)- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $12K · now 77¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?No $9.0K · now 76¢ · in at 78¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $7.9K · now 74¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (55% of 32)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes $6.7K · now 42¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (50% of 46)
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?No $6.7K · now 66¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (75% of 16)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $6.7K · now 65¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?No $6.6K · now 58¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?No $5.6K · now 48¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
930 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 44¢- Politics
+10 pts
side won 61% of 115 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +1%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 47% of 447 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +3%
- Economy
+15 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 35% of 167 at an average 36¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 43%(won 9% of 401)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 46% of 148)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 72% of 101)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 94% of 280)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.