Consensus PnL $504K · win rate 59% (1084–758, n=1842) · PM monthly #707 · holds 63 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$503.8K
Record
1084W / 758L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 1842 settled
Batting Avg
55.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1210
Source
PM monthly #707 + pinned
Trades
26,300
Markets
2,679
Volume
$14.0M
Top consensus positions
63 in listed consensus markets · 44 of 63 on the consensus side (70%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $54K · now 97¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $19K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $15K · now 5¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No $14K · now 96¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (61% of 28)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?No $8.1K · now 26¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $7.4K · now 73¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $6.6K · now 87¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $6.5K · now 12¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (91% of 32)
Specialties
2,120 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 41¢- Politics
+8 pts
side won 51% of 524 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +10%
- Mentions
+8 pts
side won 66% of 152 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +14%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 43% of 576 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 49%(won 10% of 1032)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 52% of 250)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 70% of 255)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 95% of 583)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.