Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$2.2K
$32.24
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 77.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$244.23 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
TR troimCTR | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $423.24 | $682.03 | +$260.8 | 36% 397-691 (1088) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $100 | $86.07 | -$28.06 | 57% 1113-837 (1950) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $40.46 | $84.2 | +$43.74 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
Invested
$1,547.41
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$244.23
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$423.24
Value
$682.03
PnL
+$260.8
Record
36%
397-691 (1088)
cambridgeisaacCTRInvested
$100
Value
$86.07
PnL
-$28.06
Record
57%
1113-837 (1950)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$40.46
Value
$84.2
PnL
+$43.74
Record
18%
3832-17370 (21202)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.