Consensus PnL $55K · win rate 59% (579–404, n=983) · was PM monthly #867 · holds 87 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$54.9K
Record
579W / 404L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 983 settled
Batting Avg
51.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1217
Source
PM monthly #867 + pinned
Trades
50,338
Markets
2,246
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
87 in listed consensus markets · 48 of 87 on the consensus side (55%)- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $32K · now 77¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $10K · now 65¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.5K · now 71¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $7.4K · now 71¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.1K · now 74¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No $2.6K · now 71¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $2.3K · now 99¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?No $2.3K · now 36¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,362 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 65¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 73% of 472 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +7%
- Soccer
+11 pts
side won 64% of 58 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +12%
- Economy
+8 pts
side won 85% of 40 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 68% of 147 at an average 73¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 6% of 259)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 28% of 108)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 73% of 150)
- 70¢ and up: 62%(won 92% of 845)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.