Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $483 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$482.73
$-11.5K
2.5¢ → 0.1¢
-96% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $11.6K | $374.44 | $-11.2K | 43% 570-741 (1311) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $148.29 | $55.28 | -$93.01 | 41% 1281-1830 (3111) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $149.3 | $49.48 | -$99.82 | 41% 1988-2806 (4794) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $115.01 | $3.53 | -$111.49 | 11% 20-166 (186) |
Invested
$11,558.5
Value
$374.44
PnL
$-11.2K
Record
43%
570-741 (1311)
Invested
$148.29
Value
$55.28
PnL
-$93.01
Record
41%
1281-1830 (3111)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$149.3
Value
$49.48
PnL
-$99.82
Record
41%
1988-2806 (4794)
Invested
$115.01
Value
$3.53
PnL
-$111.49
Record
11%
20-166 (186)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.