Consensus PnL $249K · win rate 47% (1267–1416, n=2683) · was PM monthly #960 · holds 96 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$248.6K
Record
1267W / 1416L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 2683 settled
Batting Avg
62.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1912
Source
PM monthly #960
Trades
30,308
Markets
3,631
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
96 in listed consensus markets · 75 of 96 on the consensus side (78%)- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $20K · now 65¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $8.1K · now 24¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $5.5K · now 13¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $4.7K · now 9¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $2.6K · now 77¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (80% of 56)
- Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $2.5K · now 6¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $2.5K · now 13¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $2.5K · now 17¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,747 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 46¢- Soccer
+16 pts
side won 65% of 524 · avg entry 49¢
ROI 0%
- NBA
+15 pts
side won 56% of 226 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +1%
- NFL
+11 pts
side won 48% of 109 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 20% of 696)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 55% of 196)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 78% of 280)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 96% of 575)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.