Consensus PnL -$49K · win rate 8% (7–86, n=93) · was PM monthly #943 · holds 90 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-49.1K
Record
7W / 86L
Win Rate
8.0%
of 93 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2257
Source
PM monthly #943
Trades
11
Markets
139
Volume
$257.6K
Top consensus positions
90 in listed consensus markets · 77 of 90 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?No $2.9K · now 95¢ · in at 95¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Edmonton Oilers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $1.3K · now 12¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $1.3K · now 66¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (90% of 20)
- Will the Carolina Hurricanes be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $1.3K · now 12¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $968 · now 14¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $830 · now 8¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $809 · now 7¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $803 · now 24¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
Specialties
69 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 77¢- MLB
+5 pts
side won 84% of 32 · avg entry 80¢
ROI −32%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 67% of 21 · avg entry 64¢
ROI −16%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 8% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 80%(won 100% of 55)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.