Will Oklahoma Sooners win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $407 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$407.31
-$53
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
497h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock | Noavg 99.5¢ | $423.63 | $394.17 | +$0.88 | 58% 21213-15412 (36625) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $45.52 | $8.84 | -$36.45 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $10.56 | $2.79 | -$14.25 | 48% 1967-2120 (4087) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $4.63 | $1.5 | -$3.13 | 39% 2901-4499 (7400) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0.05 | 17% 1312-6543 (7855) |
Invested
$423.63
Value
$394.17
PnL
+$0.88
Record
58%
21213-15412 (36625)
Invested
$45.52
Value
$8.84
PnL
-$36.45
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$14.25
Record
48%
1967-2120 (4087)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$3.13
Record
39%
2901-4499 (7400)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.05
Record
17%
1312-6543 (7855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.