Consensus PnL $170K · win rate 44% (2871–3640, n=6511) · was PM monthly #890 · holds 163 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$169.6K
Record
2871W / 3640L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 6511 settled
Batting Avg
56.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2220
Source
PM monthly #890
Record (90 d)
114/1725 · 7%
Trades
18,051
Markets
8,399
Volume
$14.6M
Top consensus positions
163 in listed consensus markets · 110 of 163 on the consensus side (67%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No $7.5K · now 74¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (35% of 26)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $6.6K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (67% of 82)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?No $6.3K · now 63¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No $5.2K · now 64¢ · in at 61¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $5.2K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (75% of 32)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $4.0K · now 84¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?No $3.5K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (39% of 23)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $1.9K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
Specialties
5,410 settled consensus markets · held side won 7% at an average entry of 5¢- MLB
+7 pts
side won 13% of 141 · avg entry 6¢
ROI 0%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 10% of 238 · avg entry 5¢
ROI 0%
- Mentions
+2 pts
side won 5% of 666 · avg entry 3¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 13% of 478 at an average 14¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 96%(won 5% of 5210)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 38% of 101)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 72% of 69)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 87% of 30)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.