Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$76.53

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$547.7

Total Shares1,274

Combined PnL-$77.82

Yes3 traders

Total Value$511.78

Total Shares789

Combined PnL+$154.35

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Noavg 49.1¢	$625.52	$547.7	-$77.82	— 7-2 (9)
Hannah-Montana	Yesavg 50.3¢	$227.6	$339.39	+$111.78	67% 209-101 (310)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 16.8¢	$73.25	$155.76	+$39.13	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$13.2	$16.64	+$3.43	32% 4495-9638 (14133)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Invested

$625.52

Value

$547.7

PnL

-$77.82

Record

—

7-2 (9)

Hannah-Montana

Yes

Invested

$227.6

Value

$339.39

PnL

+$111.78

Record

67%

209-101 (310)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$73.25

Value

$155.76

PnL

+$39.13

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.2

Value

$16.64

PnL

+$3.43

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.