Consensus PnL -$3.1K · win rate 69% (203–92, n=295) · PM monthly #646 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-3.1K
Record
203W / 92L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 295 settled
Batting Avg
30.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#790
Source
PM monthly #646
Trades
390
Markets
361
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 7 on the consensus side (43%)- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No $1.0K · now 47¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?No $943 · now 83¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?Yes $368 · now 65¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?No $147 · now 16¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will OpenRouter process between 195T and 205T tokens the week of October 26?No $61 · now 67¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Yes $12 · now 68¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Yes $6 · now 9¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
285 settled consensus markets · held side won 64% at an average entry of 63¢- Tech
+19 pts
side won 80% of 59 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +11%
- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 80% of 35 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 67% of 24 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 44% of 27 at an average 65¢ entry (−21 pts against the price), ROI −13%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 16% of 56)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 43% of 37)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 50% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 92% of 148)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.