Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will OpenRouter process between 195T and 205T tokens the week of October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 46¢ · $211 held · ends Nov 2

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$210.76

Combined PnL

$22.14

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 46¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$153.24

Total Shares330

Combined PnL-$0.46

No1 trader

Total Value$57.52

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$22.6

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 50.7¢	$127.71	$115.92	-$11.79	59% 3430-2345 (5775)
Hannah-Montana<$100	Noavg 46.8¢	$34.92	$57.52	+$22.6	67% 209-101 (310)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$18.89	$21.83	+$1.8	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$5.96	$15.49	+$9.53	— 7-2 (9)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.71

Value

$115.92

PnL

-$11.79

Record

59%

3430-2345 (5775)

Hannah-Montana<$100

Invested

$34.92

Value

$57.52

PnL

+$22.6

Record

67%

209-101 (310)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.89

Value

$21.83

PnL

+$1.8

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.96

Value

$15.49

PnL

+$9.53

Record

—

7-2 (9)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.