Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 4.4¢ · $127 held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$127.08

Combined PnL

$70.68

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$125.14

Total Shares2,844

Combined PnL+$70.75

No1 trader

Total Value$1.94

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.07

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR	Yes	$121.76	$121.76	+$68.84	53% 28648-25583 (54231)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$3.39	$3.39	+$1.92	6% 14-231 (245)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.01	$1.94	-$0.07	38% 3031-4911 (7942)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.76

Value

$121.76

PnL

+$68.84

Record

53%

28648-25583 (54231)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$1.92

Record

14-231 (245)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$2.01

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$0.07

Record

38%

3031-4911 (7942)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.6%

4.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1684.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

1784.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.