Consensus PnL $56K · win rate 63% (12–7, n=19) · PM monthly #354 · holds 104 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.1K
Record
12W / 7L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 19 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1048
Source
PM monthly #354
Trades
7
Markets
327
Volume
$308.9K
Top consensus positions
104 in listed consensus markets · 67 of 104 on the consensus side (64%)- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $1.7K · now 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $243 · now 37¢with the consensus (65% of 54)
- Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $185 · now 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $180 · now 0¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $176 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $173 · now 0¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $170 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $148 · now 35¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
23 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 14¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where NyetRisk's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 78%(won 50% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 100% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.