Will RB Leipzig reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 69¢ · $741 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
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Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$740.51
$49.28
63.9¢ → 69¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 61.5¢ | $492 | $552 | +$60 | 41% 2124-3048 (5172) |
ND ndb1 | Noavg 74¢ | $143.76 | $134.05 | -$9.71 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $48.56 | $48.56 | -$0 | 40% 6508-9755 (16263) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $6.9 | $5.9 | -$1 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.