Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $12 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$11.65

Combined PnL

-$498.08

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$4.32

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.33

Total Shares14,658

Combined PnL-$498.09

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rated<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.31	$4.32	+$0.01	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
AL alex20011CTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$282.75	$4.1	-$278.65	48% 3491-3823 (7314)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	$1.83	$1.83	-$124.4	52% 5045-4715 (9760)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yes	$1.4	$1.4	-$95.05	51% 2516-2391 (4907)

rated<$100

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.01

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

alex20011CTR

Yes

Invested

$282.75

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$278.65

Record

48%

3491-3823 (7314)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$124.4

Record

52%

5045-4715 (9760)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$95.05

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.