Consensus PnL $101K · win rate 54% (2137–1847, n=3984) · PM monthly #500 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$101.3K
Record
2137W / 1847L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 3984 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1484
Source
PM monthly #500
Trades
1,005
Markets
5,198
Volume
$816.9K
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 21 on the consensus side (43%)- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election by 30%-35%?No $17 · now 69¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will LeBron James win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?No $15 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?No $15 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Luka Doncic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?No $13 · now 80¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $4 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No $4 · now 90¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?No $3 · now 59¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No $2 · now 64¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
Specialties
2,163 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 65¢- Weather
+2 pts
side won 68% of 483 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +17%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 63% of 507 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +21%
- Tech
+4 pts
side won 60% of 141 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 73% of 102 at an average 74¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 12% of 579)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 46% of 145)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 70% of 179)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 95% of 1260)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.