Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Research candidate
No
5
No 80%
$3.6K
$752.61
73.2¢ → 92.5¢
+26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 93%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
1310h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 66.8¢ | $1.5K | $2.1K | +$576.07 | 66% 487-255 (742) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 82.9¢ | $729.9 | $788.1 | +$81.75 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 80.6¢ | $654.97 | $751.86 | +$96.86 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
 NiceDuckBro<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $7.15 | $9.73 | +$2.58 | 65% 335-177 (512) |
 randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $6.9 | $2.25 | -$4.65 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
Invested
$1,499.74
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$576.07
Record
66%
487-255 (742)
Invested
$729.9
Value
$788.1
PnL
+$81.75
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
Invested
$654.97
Value
$751.86
PnL
+$96.86
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
NiceDuckBro<$100Invested
$7.15
Value
$9.73
PnL
+$2.58
Record
65%
335-177 (512)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$4.65
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.