Consensus PnL $277K · win rate 63% (302–181, n=483) · was PM monthly #991 · holds 30 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$277.4K
Record
302W / 181L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 483 settled
Batting Avg
67.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1015
Source
PM monthly #991 + pinned
Trades
26,525
Markets
857
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
30 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 30 on the consensus side (83%)- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $50K · now 90¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No $36K · now 95¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No $35K · now 95¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $31K · now 90¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes $14K · now 93¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No $11K · now 93¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (57% of 21)
- Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?No $10K · now 97¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $8.9K · now 84¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
Specialties
634 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 58¢- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 70% of 507 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +6%
- Finance
+13 pts
side won 64% of 11 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 36% of 44 at an average 48¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 13% of 106)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 52% of 119)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 69% of 161)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 93% of 248)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.