Consensus PnL -$7.2K · win rate 65% (172–91, n=263) · hand-picked wallet · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-7.2K
Record
172W / 91L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 263 settled
Batting Avg
62.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#936
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
9,518
Markets
548
Volume
$770.5K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.1K · now 42¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (50% of 46)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $1.0K · now 90¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Yes $753 · now 9¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?No $720 · now 23¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Yes $195 · now 33¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $72 · now 74¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?No $10 · now 93¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Yes $9 · now 9¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
342 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 66¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 71% of 252 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 53% of 19 at an average 60¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −41%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 2% of 43)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 33% of 45)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 69% of 67)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 89% of 187)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.