Consensus PnL $39K · win rate 78% (884–246, n=1130) · hand-picked wallet · holds 50 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$39.4K
Record
884W / 246L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 1130 settled
Batting Avg
58.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#489
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
18,342
Markets
1,723
Volume
$632.1K
Top consensus positions
50 in listed consensus markets · 38 of 50 on the consensus side (76%)- Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?No $4.5K · now 99¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $2.3K · now 99¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will Russia invade another country in 2026?No $1.8K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No $1.6K · now 73¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (62% of 34)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?No $1.4K · now 88¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $1.3K · now 68¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (51% of 61)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $1.1K · now 84¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Blue wave in 2026?Yes $915 · now 88¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (63% of 16)
Specialties
1,027 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 72¢- Elections
+14 pts
side won 76% of 112 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +3%
- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 84% of 404 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +8%
- Politics
+9 pts
side won 77% of 288 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +10%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 19% of 146)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 50% of 72)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 79% of 124)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 98% of 685)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.