Will Saint Louis win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $528 held · ends Apr 20, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$528.47
$46.95
90.6¢ → 99.3¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
65h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $416.12 | $462.97 | +$46.85 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $5.68 | $54 | +$1.67 | 39% 2901-4499 (7400) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $9 | $8.92 | -$0.08 | 31% 4458-9740 (14198) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $1.66 | $2.16 | -$1.51 | 23% 1782-6021 (7803) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.43 | $0.43 | +$0.02 | 43% 8739-11399 (20138) |
Invested
$416.12
Value
$462.97
PnL
+$46.85
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$5.68
Value
$54
PnL
+$1.67
Record
39%
2901-4499 (7400)
Invested
$9
Value
$8.92
PnL
-$0.08
Record
31%
4458-9740 (14198)
Invested
$1.66
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$1.51
Record
23%
1782-6021 (7803)
Invested
$0.43
Value
$0.43
PnL
+$0.02
Record
43%
8739-11399 (20138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.