Consensus PnL $60K · win rate 40% (4819–7309, n=12128) · was PM monthly #478 · holds 62 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$60.4K
Record
4819W / 7309L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 12128 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2449
Source
PM monthly #478
Record (90 d)
3632/7042 · 52%
Trades
5,671
Markets
23,520
Volume
$1.5M
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Top consensus positions
62 in listed consensus markets · 37 of 62 on the consensus side (60%)- Will LYON win Worlds 2026?No $568 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (33% of 21)
- Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?No $510 · now 82¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?No $492 · now 85¢ · in at 84¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $424 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Podemos win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $424 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on November 4?No $374 · now 98¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 28m?No $299 · now 51¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (91% of 11)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No $291 · now 52¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
4,506 settled consensus markets · held side won 42% at an average entry of 44¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where mildwindow27's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Weather — held side won 57% of 970 at an average 60¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 54%(won 1% of 2428)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 41% of 116)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 56% of 202)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 96% of 1760)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.