Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2026 NFC West?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 20¢ · $428 held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$428.31
-$109.68
26.3¢ → 20.5¢
-22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 solwizzo-onXCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $300 | $205 | -$95 | 67% 350-174 (524) |
 macrosteaks | Noavg 84.1¢ | $124.46 | $111.3 | -$6.44 | 55% 3300-2750 (6050) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $12.13 | $96.63 | -$15.56 | 48% 6603-7156 (13759) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $8.05 | $15.37 | +$7.33 | 41% 1402-2016 (3418) |
solwizzo-onXCTRInvested
$300
Value
$205
PnL
-$95
Record
67%
350-174 (524)
macrosteaksInvested
$124.46
Value
$111.3
PnL
-$6.44
Record
55%
3300-2750 (6050)
Invested
$12.13
Value
$96.63
PnL
-$15.56
Record
48%
6603-7156 (13759)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$8.05
Value
$15.37
PnL
+$7.33
Record
41%
1402-2016 (3418)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.