Consensus PnL $7.1K · win rate 67% (282–136, n=418) · hand-picked wallet · holds 27 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$7.1K
Record
282W / 136L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 418 settled
Batting Avg
86.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#845
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
28,857
Markets
618
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
27 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 27 on the consensus side (70%)- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?No $3.9K · now 98¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?No $1.4K · now 93¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?No $1.2K · now 95¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $876 · now 3¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $809 · now 8¢ · in at 9¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026?No $601 · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $487 · now 4¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $467 · now 93¢ · in at 95¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
460 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 52¢- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 71% of 156 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +7%
- NBA
+13 pts
side won 41% of 34 · avg entry 28¢
ROI 0%
- Finance
+8 pts
side won 75% of 85 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 36% of 28 at an average 39¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 7% of 166)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 49% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 77% of 47)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 95% of 204)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.